June 19, 2012 |
Just when you thought
political incivility and partisan gridlock couldn’t get any worse, get
ready for more of the same or worse next year.
In
state capitals, the triple-impact of term limits, 2010's political
swing to the Tea Party right and the scourge of redistricting are poised
to take a devastating toll, leaving state legislatures
filled with the largest class of inexperienced ideological lawmakers in years. Nationwide, one-half or more are
projected to have less than two years experience.
Moreover,
as lawmakers are forced to step away from their severe campaign
rhetoric and start governing, many will turn to the people with the
longest institutional memories: lobbyists who are aligned with their
partisan viewpoints.
Lost in this scenario, which has been discussed in
magazines and
Web sites catering to state legislators, is the art of compromise to serve the public.
"The biggest thing over the years has been
the change in statesmanship," Colorado legislator-turned-lobbyist Gayle
Berry recently told the Denver Post. "Some of the lawmakers who had worked with governors in a different party worked in a more bipartisan manner."
Berry should know: she's a former Republican state representative.
Redistricting's Shadow
Perhaps the greatest negative impact comes from redistricting.
Everybody knows the GOP, led by Tea Party activists in many states,
swept 2010's federal and state elections. Control of the U.S. House went
to right-wing Republicans and ideologues such as Wisconsin's Scott
Walker and Florida's Rick Scott were elected governor. Another result of
that sweep was the GOP taking control of the once-a-decade
redistricting process, where state legislative and federal congressional
district lines are drawn.
“They could rig the game in their favor, and have already drawn seats
to their advantage in what were once traditionally competitive states,"
said
Shira Toeplitz, who covers redistricting and political campaigns for
Roll Call.
“Democrats chose a bad cycle to get wiped out,” said
Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the
Rothenberg Political Report. “You just don’t want to get wiped out in an election year ending in a zero because of the implications for redistricting.”
In state-after-state, GOP lawmakers carved out new and oddly shaped
Congressional and state legislative districts to bolster Republican
candidates' chances. These steps deepened the partisan gains and
divisions in many state legislatures and their congressional
delegations.
Some of the partisan gerrymandering was “downright ugly,” Toeplitz
said. The Republicans were particularly effective in Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and North Carolina, Gonzales said.
“I’m not optimistic we’re going to see a well-oiled government moving
into high speed in 2013,” Gonzales predicted. The GOP's line-drawers
dominated the process in Texas and Florida, Gonzales added.
These five states will play outsized big roles in the 2012 federal elections.
Of course, Democrats were successful in redrawing district lines in a few states, such as in Illinois, said
Tim Storey,
the National Conference of State Legislatures' (NCSL) redistricting and
elections analyst. “Illinois may have been the most controversial
redistricting of the cycle," Toeplitz said, "except perhaps for the
Republican redraw in Texas which went all the way to the Department of
Justice.” (Those districts are being contested in federal court.)
The November general election will produce eyebrow-raising results. The
average turnover rate in even-year elections is 17-19 percent, NCSL's
Storey said. That spiked two years ago at 24 percent. “It was a wave
election, it swept in Republicans in historically high numbers to state
legislatures, and we anticipate that we’ll have a 25 percent turnover
rate this time,” he said.
What’s even more frightening: Approximately half of all state
legislators will have served for two years or less when the 2013
sessions convene. Along with that, he says 15 states have term-limit
laws in place.
The bottom line is an alarming bunch of fresh faces, fresh from
ideology driven campaigns, will be sworn in to govern. In Florida, one
in four state lawmakers will be freshmen next January. One-third of
Colorado legislators will be rookies. And in California, analysts say up
to 50 percent of state legislators could be first-timers.
And what do Americans get out of all this?
Rise of Ideology, Loss of Governing Skills
The experts say ideological newcomers will storm into state capitols or
up Washington's Capitol Hill steps with an agenda. They are often less
willing to compromise, while at the same time, will spend a great deal
of time just learning how to play the game. Then they get angry when
little or nothing of what they promised is accomplished.
“Some Republican members were surprised after being elected in 2010
about how difficult it is to get things done in Washington,” said
Gonzalez. But he sees no indication that conditions will change in DC
next year.
“Even if you have Republicans in control of the House, the Senate and
the White House, Republicans will still have difficulty because you will
have a crop of Tea Party-influenced candidates who will be pushing the
envelope even further than a President Romney might want,” he said,
speculating on the worst-case scenario for Democrats.
On the state level, newly elected legislators push their own agendas
more vigorously whether they are on the right or the left, Storey said,
because they don’t know how long they’ll be around.
The longer legislators work together, there’s less likelihood one
party's members will try to undermine the other or refuse to work
together. But under term limits and the New World Order of extremely
partisan politics and redistricting, that is unlikely to happen now or
next year. Political partnerships dissolve, leaving only room for
inaction.
Gonzales says he’s seen growing evidence of an ominous new trend: When
lawmakers of one party try to work with those on the other side or
compromise on legislation, those same politicians are threatened with a
challenge from the extremes in the next primary.
The last two years in Congress have shown that lawmakers are “less
willing to compromise, certainly on the House side,” Toeplitz said.
The animosity has spread to the 50 statehouses and the 7,382 people who
serve in the houses and senates there. “Legislators are frustrated by
the hyper-polarized world in a number of states,” Storey said. “They
work hard for very little compensation, they really believe they can
make a difference and when things don’t go well, they decide it’s not
worth staying around.”
If lawmakers are upset, so are the people who send them to do the public’s business.
“A lot of voters are frustrated by the partisan gridlock in Washington
and redistricting is not going to improve that by any means,” Toeplitz
said.
And uncertain economic times heightens partisan differences, Gonzales said.
“Economic uncertainty causes more volatility and people are unsure
about the direction of the country now, so we are experiencing these
wild swings,” he said. “Because of the volatility, political parties
feel more pressure from their base and are less willing to compromise.”
That dynamic won’t change until Americans are more satisfied with their lives and the country’s condition, Gonzales said.
Lobbyists' Influence Will Grow
When all the factors are taken together, the legislative “field”
becomes fertile ground for lobbyists, these experts have noted.
Term limits and redistricting reduce the number of legislative veterans
but the lobbyists remain. They know how the system works and they can
exert more influence on newcomers, who are still trying to find their
way.
The hardcore positions taken at both the state and federal levels may
mean more of the same vitriol in the months ahead on tax policy,
immigration, funding for public schools, the future of health care, and
what to do with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
But lawmakers now embroiled in ideological and partisan bickering might heed what’s been happening in Oregon.
“The House there has an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, it
has co-speakers -- one Republican, one Democrat -- and committee
co-chairs,” Storey said. “They say they’ve had a very productive
legislative biennium. They worked well together because they were forced
to do that.”
Gonzales said he has been thinking a lot about what conditions lead to responsive governing.
“Do we need the institutional knowledge or do we need fresh faces?” he
pondered. “I think the answer is yes [both].. because there has to be a
mix of people who know how government works and new people who bring a
fresh perspective.”
If only the hardcore, take-no-prisoners politicians in both political parties would be willing to look, listen and learn.
George Bauer is a print and broadcast journalist living in Atlanta, Georgia.
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